One Sorry Blog

Lesson #1: The House Always Wins
By Ace Cummins

Running a casino is like robbing a bank with no cops around. For guys like me, Las Vegas washes away your sins. It’s like a morality car wash. – Ace Rothstein

It’s true. Anyone who has been to Vegas twice knows this. The place isn’t getting exponentially bigger on winners, right?

Never forget this. Knowing this is the key to your success in any gaming venture.

“But how?” you ask.

Let me explain: If you know the house will win at the end of the day, sometimes you bet on the house.

When betting sports you can’t bet with the house. But what you can do is look for exaggerated or incorrect lines. An exaggerated line is one that has been skewed in one direction based on what John Q. Bettor is expected to gamble on. Basically, the line makers set their point spreads to maximize profit. They do this by ensuring that the all the money bet on any proposition will be 50/50. It makes perfect sense. The house is perfectly happy taking their guaranteed 10% of all money bet (the juice) rather than hope that the outcome of a game turns out how they want it to. The house doesn’t care who wins. They just want their 10%. The house doesn’t care about fluke wins, unexpected fumbles, bizarre wild pitches, and meaningless field goals at the end of the 1997 Rose Bowl. But gamblers sure do. Man the house has it easy.

After reading that, you may be thinking “duh,” and stop reading. But there is also a chance that I just shed some new light on the process and it makes more sense to you now than before.

Now, back to discussing exaggerated lines. Lines are not only based on the quality of the two teams (or sides) playing in a contest, but other factors. Which team is at home (up to -3 points), records, who is pitching, which team is on a streak, injuries and time of game are all examples. Almost anything can factor in. But the main factor is John Q. Bettor and what it will take for him to bet on either side of a contest. Some teams are much more popular than others, and thus are more likely to get bet on. If you can sniff out when lines are being exaggerated based on what I will call “fan bias” and not on what a computer program can spit out, you will gain yourself a few points here and there. And every point counts.

In my experience the best way to sniff out an exaggerated line is to have a partner in crime. Both of you should look at the same list of games and guess what you think the lines are and who to bet on. Then compare with each other and the actual lines. When you both agree on a team and the actual line is in your favor, you have a solid bet. For example if you both thought Cal would cover UCLA in the Pac 10 Tourney Quarterfinals getting +12 points, and the line was actually +15, bet away. Cha-ching!

Now, to put my mouth where my money is…
You gotta love March Madness. So many meaningful games in so little time. The only thing bad about March Madness is April.

Picks for the week:

College Hoops
Notre Dame vs. Georgetown (-4)
Taking the Hoyas in what should be a great match-up at The Garden Friday night. Georgetown’s Hibbert has been terrible this season against the Irish and has something to prove. He’ll be too much for the Catholic boys to handle.

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State (+2) *****My 5-Star Pick*****
The Bulldogs get no respect coming into this game as an underdog. That should give the SEC West Champs some Locker Room fodder against Tubby Smith’s underachieving crew. I’ll take State and points against the overrated Wildcats (12-16 against the spread this year) any day of the week and twice on Friday.

Purdue (-2.5) vs. Iowa
Had to throw in a Big Ten game, and this one caught my eye. Purdue is great against the spread (17-9 is ridonkulous). Gotta take the Boilermakers in a big game for them.

May your three-team parlays always hit.

– Ace