One Sorry Blog

Lesson #2: Good Coaches Win, Great Coaches Cover
By Ace Cummins

It might be a slogan for The Old Pro Sports Bar in Palo Alto, but it is wise beyond its letters. (The Old Pro is highly recommended if you happen to be stuck in PA – it is one of the few quality sports bars in the Bay Area). In the world of gambling it is never enough to just win, and sometimes it’s not so bad if the team you wagered on loses. Just so long as they cover. Some coaches do just that and that, says The Old Pro, is what makes them great.

You gotta love March Madness, and the lone NCAA Tourney game we have had so far saw Niagara defeat Florida A&M 77-69. Would you be surprised if I told you that Niagara was an eight-point favorite? Absolutely not, because the lines makers are damn good.

I hope you all profited immensely from my solid first week as a “published gambler”, in which I nailed my 5-star pick and went 2-1 overall. Did Vegas notice? We’ll see if the lines change after my picks go live.

So without further ado, Ace’s picks for opening weekend:

Oral Roberts (+6.5) vs. Washington State
It’s hard for me to go against a West Coast team, but this game has nail-biter written all over it. This one will go down to the wire and six and a half are way too many points for what is projected to be a low scoring game. Even if the game is not as close as I think it will be, that many points are hard to give, and sooooo easy to take. Plus, it’s the tourney and dogs aren’t dogs in March.

Winthrop (+4) vs. Notre Dame *****My 5-Star Pick*****
What conference are these guys in? Who cares? These guys are the hot pick right now and for good reason. They can flat our play. The have the experience, the heart and the coach (see lesson #2) that makes them the perfect fit for the glass slipper. Did someone say, “George Mason?” This line will be 3.5 by the time I wake up tomorrow. Trust me. If you can still get four points, jump on it. I think 3.5 is still good, and I love the money line.

Villanova (-1) vs. Kentucky
This game started as a pick-‘em, and has already moved a full point. Likely to be 1.5 by the morning, too. When lines swing, you know people are heavily betting one way, and when that happens with so many games to choose from, jump on the bandwagon. As I said last week, Kentucky is overrated and the gamblers out there obviously agree. Maybe Vegas saw my 5-star pick of the week last week and took notice. Either way, Villanova is a great free throw shooting team, so come crunch time, you’ll be glad you have money on ‘em.

You asked for it and you got it:

Sucker Bet of the Week:

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Duke (-6.5)
Duke is not that good and VCU really thinks they will win. They might not, but Duke on a normal year would we 19 point favs in a contest like this. That should tell you something. Now Coach K gets every call, so I would never bet on VCU, but Duke is a Sucker Bet if I ever saw one.