One Sorry Blog

Week 4 - Trends

By Ace Cummins

Now that we have access to three weeks worth of data, it is time to really look at trends around the NFL. A week here and a game there can provide anomalies. But three weeks is enough to really see what teams can (or can’t do).

One thing is now for certain: the NFC is terrible. Headed into last week I saw only three possible NFC contenders: the Cowboys, the Seahawks and the Eagles. I said this when the Eagles were 0-2. The Eagles proved me right with their drubbing of the Lions (my favorites to win the NFC North), the Cowboys made my 5-star pick a breeze and the Seahawks scraped out another win (something they are very good at) last week. The Bears and Saints are still MIA and are expected to remain that way. The Pack are making noise, and Favre could script a storybook run in the weak NFC, but I don’t buy it yet. Even if they will be 4-0 after this week.

Before you throw out all of my non-5-star picks and just throw the farm on my proposed lock, keep in mind I am feeling it this week. I like the match-ups, the trends and the numbers. It has been relatively easy to choose my 5-star game the first three weeks. This week it was different. I like too many games. But do keep in mind I am a stout 7-1 (.875) on 5-star picks. So if you are following trends, my 5-star pick is the way to go. I should be charging for this info. Other “Pros” charge for theirs with much lower numbers. Come on, enter the party.

Week 4 picks…

Ravens @ Browns (+4.5)
I am not crazy with this pick. I love the Browns at home against a very overrated team that almost blew a large lead to Kurt Warner last week. The trends are with me, too. Cleveland is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this year and Baltimore is 0-3. I’ll take the points.

Chicago @ Detroit (+3)
Another home dog makes the list. Can Chicago still be considered for road favorite status? Really? They were on the losing end of last week’s 5-star pick for good reason. They ain’t good. And I am certain Brian Griese is not the answer to their troubles. The Lions will throw early and often. Kitna can easily have Romo success against the Bears D. Did I mention the Bears are 0-3 ATS this year? And 1-8 in their last 9? I like points against a trend like that.

Packers (-1) @ Vikings
From two home dogs to three road favorites… Leading off are the very surprising 3-0 Pack Attack. Pure numbers: Green Bay is 3-0 ATS this year and 6-1 in their last 7. Minnesota is 1-0-2 this year and 3-8-2 in their last 13. I love when trends work together to make a clear decision. Yes, the Pack will be 4-0. Who’d have thunk?

Patriots (-7) @ Bengals
Road Fav #2… the Pats. If you need convincing (you shouldn’t), here it goes: Brandy and Co. are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. The Bungals are 2-3-1 ATS in their last six. Is it possible that Vegas sees the Pats as underrated and the Bengals as overrated? That’s what the trends say. I’ll take the “underrated” (cough) Pats and give the Bengals their seven points, even if they are at home. The Pats cover, it’s what they do.

*****Five-star pick of the Week***** Steelers (-6) @ Cardinals
The Steelers are sleeping Giants. They have won their first three games by a combined score of 97- 26. Sure they played some lackluster teams, but it’s not like the Cardinals are striking fear into anyone’s heart these days. Another mediocre opponent for Pittsburgh means another lopsided victory. Oh, I almost forgot… the Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight (3-0 this year). The Cards are 1-0-2 to begin 2007. I love it!

Ace Cummins is 16-14-4 overall and 7-1 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.