A SPECIAL CHAMPIONSHIP EDITION OF Gambling Is Easy (or, You’ve Heard of Ace Rothstein? Well This Is Ace Cummins!)

Gators, Baby
By Ace Cummins

I am sorry if I let you down and didn’t post my picks for the Final Four on Friday. If you were waiting for them to place your bets, I apologize and hope I can make it up with today’s special Monday edition.

I admit it, I don’t like Florida. I don’t want to see them win it all… again. But you know what, that means two shits in a world full of toilets (does that make sense?). The facts are this: Florida had dominated, I mean dominated, all three of the Final Four games they have played in the last two years (winning by an average of over 13 points/game). Why should tonight be any different? It won’t. Gators will win by the measly 5 points they are giving up in Vegas. Rest assured. Hey, I’d love to see the Buckeyes pull off the upset, but they truly are overmatched at every position (yes this includes Oden). Oden is a beast and a true talent, but will be no match for the always solid play of Florida’s post players. Plus, add Green, Humphrey and Brewer (the guy I love to hate) and the Buckeyes freshman-led backcourt will be seeing double (or triples actually) all game long. Buckeyes will be Gator Bait tonight.

For the record:

Ohio State vs. Florida (-5)
Not only will Florida repeat as National Champions, the Gators will hold the National Championship in the two biggest collegiate sports during the same season. In-sane! It may never happen again. Obvy.

Editor’s Note:
Ace Cummins: 6-3 overall, 3-0 last week, 3-0 on 5-Star picks.
Eat Me (or, One White Woman Overcomes her Racial Handicap and Prepares Damn Tasty Food from Around the World) will next appear Monday, April 9, and then Monday, April 23. Notes from the Film Vanguard (or, I Watch Disturbing Movies So You Don’t Have To) will debut this Thursday on One Sorry Blog.

Gambling Is Easy (or, You’ve Heard of Ace Rothstein? Well This Is Ace Cummins!)

Lesson #3: Jetlag Is the Real Deal
By Ace Cummins

Jetlag might have nothing to do with gambling on college hoops, but it sure is a bitch. You see, believe it or not, Ace has a real job. He has a real desk at a real office, and collects a steady paycheck. He doesn’t just rely on his 5-Star picks to pay the rent, though he could. He also likes to refer to himself in the third person. In any event, if you have been paying attention to – and hopefully wagering on – his 5-Star picks, you could have already paid your rent this month. What are you waiting for? Although he is only 3-3 overall, Ace is a perfect 2-0 on his 5-Star picks, and Vegas is noticing.

Now back to the first person. And my job, which actually has me in China this week. Shanghai, to be exact. But have no fear, thanks to Slingbox I have been able to watch my March Madness. I haven’t been here long enough to give you the full scoop on China, but this place is amazing. Truly a must for anyone who considers him (or her) self a traveler. Inquiries about Shanghai can be directed to ace.osb@gmail.com.

And now to make some money. My picks:

Vanderbilt (+7.5) vs. Georgetown
I almost shit myself when I saw this line. That is easily 1.5 points too many to give. Have you been watching games? At this stage there just aren’t any blowouts. Vandy is tough and will want to slow it down against a very solid and well-rounded Georgetown. They know they don’t match up athletically, but they have one of the best players left in the whole tourney. They want it low scoring and, that being the case, 7.5 is freaking ridículo. Take the points (and the money).

Memphis vs. Ohio State (-1.5) ***** My 5-Star Pick*****
How can you make THE Ohio State University your 5-Star pick after two scrapers to advance to the Regional Finals? For just that reason. At first I thought my bias against Memphis was getting in the way and I was giving the Oden Crew too much clout. But seriously, Memphis had no reason beating Texas A&M and should just be happy to be there. Oden and Co. have a lot to prove and will come out hungry. Seriously, if OSU had won by 10 yesterday the line would easily be above five. OSU in a blowout.

UCLA (+2.5) vs. Kansas
This one comes down to experience. Both on and off the court. UCLA has been there done that, and looked awfully good against Pitt at controlling the tempo. Then you look at Howland vs. Self. No contest. Bruins will be ready, and I don’t think Self knows what to expect. UCLA in a grinder. Money line, anyone?

Gambling Is Easy (or, You’ve Heard of Ace Rothstein? Well This Is Ace Cummins!)

Lesson #2: Good Coaches Win, Great Coaches Cover
By Ace Cummins

It might be a slogan for The Old Pro Sports Bar in Palo Alto, but it is wise beyond its letters. (The Old Pro is highly recommended if you happen to be stuck in PA – it is one of the few quality sports bars in the Bay Area). In the world of gambling it is never enough to just win, and sometimes it’s not so bad if the team you wagered on loses. Just so long as they cover. Some coaches do just that and that, says The Old Pro, is what makes them great.

You gotta love March Madness, and the lone NCAA Tourney game we have had so far saw Niagara defeat Florida A&M 77-69. Would you be surprised if I told you that Niagara was an eight-point favorite? Absolutely not, because the lines makers are damn good.

I hope you all profited immensely from my solid first week as a “published gambler”, in which I nailed my 5-star pick and went 2-1 overall. Did Vegas notice? We’ll see if the lines change after my picks go live.

So without further ado, Ace’s picks for opening weekend:

Oral Roberts (+6.5) vs. Washington State
It’s hard for me to go against a West Coast team, but this game has nail-biter written all over it. This one will go down to the wire and six and a half are way too many points for what is projected to be a low scoring game. Even if the game is not as close as I think it will be, that many points are hard to give, and sooooo easy to take. Plus, it’s the tourney and dogs aren’t dogs in March.

Winthrop (+4) vs. Notre Dame *****My 5-Star Pick*****
What conference are these guys in? Who cares? These guys are the hot pick right now and for good reason. They can flat our play. The have the experience, the heart and the coach (see lesson #2) that makes them the perfect fit for the glass slipper. Did someone say, “George Mason?” This line will be 3.5 by the time I wake up tomorrow. Trust me. If you can still get four points, jump on it. I think 3.5 is still good, and I love the money line.

Villanova (-1) vs. Kentucky
This game started as a pick-‘em, and has already moved a full point. Likely to be 1.5 by the morning, too. When lines swing, you know people are heavily betting one way, and when that happens with so many games to choose from, jump on the bandwagon. As I said last week, Kentucky is overrated and the gamblers out there obviously agree. Maybe Vegas saw my 5-star pick of the week last week and took notice. Either way, Villanova is a great free throw shooting team, so come crunch time, you’ll be glad you have money on ‘em.

You asked for it and you got it:

Sucker Bet of the Week:

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Duke (-6.5)
Duke is not that good and VCU really thinks they will win. They might not, but Duke on a normal year would we 19 point favs in a contest like this. That should tell you something. Now Coach K gets every call, so I would never bet on VCU, but Duke is a Sucker Bet if I ever saw one.

Network TV Slut (or, What Lost, Desperate Housewives and American Idol Have to Do with Your Life)

Top Five Reasons to Watch March Madness on CBS
By Julie Nisbet

The Network TV Slut is taking a break from her regularly scheduled programming and telling you why 24 is the best show on television to inform you of the top five reasons to watch March Madness on CBS.

5. For all you office-bound folk trying to master One Sorry Blog’s Art of Faking Work: the ALT + TAB option in Windows, along with 30-second updates on ESPN.com, now allows us quick access to the games ALL day long, while still giving the appearance of working hard on your TPS Reports. Fill out a bracket, shell out 5 bucks to enter your office pool, and seriously, Thursday and Friday at work have never gone faster. There are games on ALL day, scores are constantly being updated, and you can quickly switch back to that report the second you hear your boss’s squeaky shoes. Don’t forget to fill out the bracket though. When #12 Arkansas upsets the #5 Trojans in the first round, it won’t mean as much unless you have money at stake.

4. The new NBA rule that has kept Greg Oden, Kevin Durant and all those other amazingly talented 18-year-olds out of the pros this year. It’s true that many people think this rule has ruined college basketball, because these kids don’t go to class, drag down graduation rates (not that Ohio State’s could be much lower), and generally couldn’t care less about whatever school they’re going to. Regardless of whether it’s a good or bad thing, they make for incredibly entertaining basketball and this year’s freshman class is a reason to tune in this March.

3. For those of you who aren’t so keen on the basketball aspect of March Madness but don’t mind a little eye candy, take a break from drooling over Jack Bauer and Tony Almeda, and check out the tall, good looking, and uber-athletic boys of the NCAA. Sounds like a pretty good reason to watch if you ask me.

2. Because the NBA, NFL, MLB and NHL combined have nothing on Adam Morrison hitting himself in the head with a basketball four times and then crying like a baby at center court after losing to UCLA. You can’t buy intensity like that. That, my friends, is something that only comes with good old American school spirit and watching that intensity sure beats spending yet another hour watching Lost and wondering if the writers will EVER explain the damn polar bear. You won’t find it in any professional sport either. Kobe isn’t going to risk messing up his million-dollar face by smacking himself with a basketball. Why do you think he didn’t go to college?

And finally…the #1 reason you should watch March Madness…

Because Ohio State is overrated, and there is nothing sweeter, after yet another disappointing season for the Wolverines, than to watch an overrated #1 Buckeye team get taken down by an underdog. Seeing this happen twice in three months, in two different sports, will be priceless. Let’s just hope no one gets hurt in the first minute for celebrating an early 3-pointer.

Gambling Is Easy (or, You’ve Heard of Ace Rothstein? Well This Is Ace Cummins!)

Lesson #1: The House Always Wins
By Ace Cummins

Running a casino is like robbing a bank with no cops around. For guys like me, Las Vegas washes away your sins. It’s like a morality car wash. – Ace Rothstein

It’s true. Anyone who has been to Vegas twice knows this. The place isn’t getting exponentially bigger on winners, right?

Never forget this. Knowing this is the key to your success in any gaming venture.

“But how?” you ask.

Let me explain: If you know the house will win at the end of the day, sometimes you bet on the house.

When betting sports you can’t bet with the house. But what you can do is look for exaggerated or incorrect lines. An exaggerated line is one that has been skewed in one direction based on what John Q. Bettor is expected to gamble on. Basically, the line makers set their point spreads to maximize profit. They do this by ensuring that the all the money bet on any proposition will be 50/50. It makes perfect sense. The house is perfectly happy taking their guaranteed 10% of all money bet (the juice) rather than hope that the outcome of a game turns out how they want it to. The house doesn’t care who wins. They just want their 10%. The house doesn’t care about fluke wins, unexpected fumbles, bizarre wild pitches, and meaningless field goals at the end of the 1997 Rose Bowl. But gamblers sure do. Man the house has it easy.

After reading that, you may be thinking “duh,” and stop reading. But there is also a chance that I just shed some new light on the process and it makes more sense to you now than before.

Now, back to discussing exaggerated lines. Lines are not only based on the quality of the two teams (or sides) playing in a contest, but other factors. Which team is at home (up to -3 points), records, who is pitching, which team is on a streak, injuries and time of game are all examples. Almost anything can factor in. But the main factor is John Q. Bettor and what it will take for him to bet on either side of a contest. Some teams are much more popular than others, and thus are more likely to get bet on. If you can sniff out when lines are being exaggerated based on what I will call “fan bias” and not on what a computer program can spit out, you will gain yourself a few points here and there. And every point counts.

In my experience the best way to sniff out an exaggerated line is to have a partner in crime. Both of you should look at the same list of games and guess what you think the lines are and who to bet on. Then compare with each other and the actual lines. When you both agree on a team and the actual line is in your favor, you have a solid bet. For example if you both thought Cal would cover UCLA in the Pac 10 Tourney Quarterfinals getting +12 points, and the line was actually +15, bet away. Cha-ching!

Now, to put my mouth where my money is…
You gotta love March Madness. So many meaningful games in so little time. The only thing bad about March Madness is April.

Picks for the week:

College Hoops
Notre Dame vs. Georgetown (-4)
Taking the Hoyas in what should be a great match-up at The Garden Friday night. Georgetown’s Hibbert has been terrible this season against the Irish and has something to prove. He’ll be too much for the Catholic boys to handle.

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State (+2) *****My 5-Star Pick*****
The Bulldogs get no respect coming into this game as an underdog. That should give the SEC West Champs some Locker Room fodder against Tubby Smith’s underachieving crew. I’ll take State and points against the overrated Wildcats (12-16 against the spread this year) any day of the week and twice on Friday.

Purdue (-2.5) vs. Iowa
Had to throw in a Big Ten game, and this one caught my eye. Purdue is great against the spread (17-9 is ridonkulous). Gotta take the Boilermakers in a big game for them.

May your three-team parlays always hit.

– Ace