One Sorry Blog

Week 10 - Quick Picks

By Ace Cummins

With the Pats on a bye week, who will Ace make his five-star pick this week? Millions want to know…

Week 10 picks…

Broncos @ Chiefs (-3)
Chiefs at home against the struggling Broncos.

Bills (-2.5) @ Dolphins
Ride dem Bills.

Bears (-3) @ Raiders
The Raiders will eventually win again, right? Wrong.

Jags @ Titans (-4)
Titans push the winning streak to four.

Eagles @ Redskins (-2.5)*****Five-Star Pick of the Week*****
I love that this game is under a field goal.

Ace Cummins is 30-30-4 overall and 9-5 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.

Week 8 - Calling All Quarterbacks

By Ace Cummins

A quick scan through the various boxscores of Week 7 and it isn’t difficult to notice that the Quaterback position is having issues. Over one quarter of NFL teams started a different quarterback in Week 7 then they opened the season with. This trend isn’t changing in week 8 either. Check out this list of starting NFL QBs this week: Trent Dilfer (San Francisco), Quinn Gray (Jacksonville), Trent Edwards (Buffalo), Cleo Lemon (Miami), Kerry Collins (Tennessee), Vinny Testaverde (Carolina), and Brian Griese (Chicago). Two teams on byes this week have QB issues as well (Arizona and Baltimore). Six other teams head into week 8 with either someone different under center than in week one or are experiencing instability due to terrible play or injury. The Raiders (McCown/Culpepper), Falcons (Vick/Harrington/Leftwich), Rams (Bulger/Frerotte), Vikings (Jackson/Holcombe), Texans (Schaub/Rosenfels), and Browns (Frye/Anderson) all make the list.

Sure, for teams like the Browns the switch seems to have paid off. But instability at the QB position rarely leads to success in the NFL. Only half of NFL teams have stability at the game’s most important position. Not surprisingly, seven of the eight division leaders headed into week 8 have stable QBs. The lone exception is Carolina of the NFC South that has lost Jake Delhomme for the remainder of the season. However, the stable Bucs and Jeff Garcia are nipping at their heels.

Moral of the story… NFL teams need to do what ever it takes to have an effective, stable QB. And then do whatever it takes to keep them healthy. Without it, playoff chances are slim to none.

Which begs the question: If Vinny Testaverde, Kerry Collins and Quinn Gray can find themselves under center this year in the NFL…. Why are Drew Bledsoe and Jake Plummer in the witness protection program?

Week 8 picks…

Browns (-3) @ Rams
The Rams are 0-7. And for some crazy reason I really like the Browns.

Colts (-7) @ Panthers
Manning vs. Testaverde. It’s Peyton, not Archie. It’s 2007, not 1988. Wait, Testeverde threw 35 INTs in 1988. I wouldn’t take Vinny then either.

Bills (+3) @ Jets
The Bills have quietly put together three solid outings. This includes a three point win against these very same Jets back in September. The Jets have one won one game this year (Miami) and lost four in a row, including the last two to Philly and Cincy. Man-Genius? Not quite. Two teams going in opposite directions. At worst this will be a close game. I’ll take the points, thank you.

Eagles @ Vikings (+1)
The Vikings are dogs at home? To the Eagles? Weird. The Eagles have proven one thing this year: Don’t bet on ‘em. I learned that the hard way. Put a circus over that tent.

*****Five-Star Pick of the Week*****Bucs (-3.5) @ Jags
I rode the Jags to my 5-star victory last week. Quinn Gray made that pick a lock before halftime. Guess what? He’s starting again this week. This time he’s on the road. It is quite possible the Jags will not score a point. And I really like the Bucs at home.

Ace Cummins is 25-25-4 overall and 9-3 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.

Week 7 - Running Up The Score

By Ace Cummins

Who says that sportsmanship is alive and well? Cleary not he New England Patriots. After camera gate their fearless leader, Bill Belichick, clearly has decided it is “them against the world.” It is a great strategy as a head coach of a very good football team. By making his team believe that the world is out to get them, it gives a juggernaut of a team a chip on their shoulder that usually is only found in teams of a lesser caliber. That can be a deadly combination. It is shown in the Pats attitude, but more importantly with their actions on the field. This is best illustrated by the 1-yard TD run by Kyle Eckle last week in their trouncing of the Cowboys. Most teams with a 14 point lead with under 20 seconds to go in the game would just sit on the ball and run out the clock. Not the Patriots. A fourth-string running back will actually get a hand-off, and he will actually score. The lines in Vegas are already beginning to reflect this attitude.

Bring it on NFL, you have been challenged.

Week 7 picks…

Patriots (-17) @ Dolphins
Sure 17 points a lot to give. But only for teams with a conscience. The Pats do not have one of those (see above). Late scores are commonplace for this team despite having big leads. Why would it change now? I honestly thought the spread for this game would be 21.

Bucs (+2.5) @ Lions
It’s time I realized the Bucs are better than I have been giving them credit for. I actually watched them play last week, and Garcia was somewhat impressive. They have covered every spread this year except their loss to the Colts. The Lions are no Colts.

Bears @ Eagles (-6)
It’s a must win for the Eagles if they want to be able to remain in striking distance for the Division. They are due for a breakout like they did against the NFC North’s’ Lions a few weeks back. Hmmm… aren’t the Bears in the NFC North too? Just sayin’.

Steelers (-4) @ Broncos
The Broncos are a bad team. But more importantly, the Steelers get healthy this week. That bye was perfectly timed. Sure the Steelers have had a cupcake schedule, but they have dominated against cupcakes. Should be no different here.

*****Five-Star Pick of the Week*****Colts (-3.5) @ Jags
The Jags are the new black. Everyone loves them. Maybe it’s because they have a solid defense and are built not to make mistakes. That formula works against Atlanta, KC, Denver and Houston. Not the defending champs. Plus both of Jax’s backs are banged up, Indy is an under-rated run defense and the Jags will be forced to throw. Not a formula for victory.

Ace Cummins is 23-22-4 overall and 8-3 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.

Week 6 - Radiohead and I Think Alike

By Ace Cummins

So Radiohead followed my lead. They saw that I was giving out my five-star picks for free on OSB and decided they would do their same with their latest album In Rainbows, now available for any price on the British band’s official website. I personally forked up two pounds plus the 45 pence transaction fee for it. Am I cheap or generous? I can’t decide.

In the world of the NFL, my roller coaster season continues. After a 4-1 Week 4, I gave it right back with a 1-4 Week 5. I have never seen such poor game management and execution in my life. It almost makes me not want to watch anymore. Almost. The Packers throwing in the towel against the Bears. The Bills making every wrong decision to somehow lose that game to the Cowboys. Inexplicable. Moral: when all else fails, take the points.

Week 6 picks…

Texans (+7) @ Jags
Sure they let me down last week with a poor performance at home, barely scraping out a victory, but I am sticking with my Texans… especially when they are getting a full touchdown. In the topsy-turvy world that is the NFL, I am going to be taking the points whenever I can.

Dolphins @ Browns (-5.5)
The Dolphins were the team that the above Texans didn’t cover against last week. So why am I betting against them again? Am I a glutton for punishment? Maybe I just like betting on the Browns because it seems crazy that they are actually good. I can’t believe I just wrote that.

Rams (+10) @ Ravens
The Rams aren’t very good. Problem is the Ravens aren’t much better. They scored nine points against a bad team last week and are 10 points favorite this week. That can’t be right. There is a god.

Raiders (+10) @ Chargers
Raiders are hot and Norv is still a douchebag. This battle for AFC West supremacy has all the ingredients of a close contest. I’ll take the points

*****Five-Star Pick of the Week***** Patriots (-6.5) @ Cowboys
The Patriots should be giving up at least a touchdown to any team in the league on any field for the rest of the year. They are that good. The only good thing good about the Cowboys not covering but still winning that game against the Bills last Monday night is that it kept the line of this game low. Grab it while it’s still below 7. Run. 16-0 is not out of the question. Serious.

Ace Cummins is 21-19-4 overall and 7-3 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.

Week 4 - Trends

By Ace Cummins

Now that we have access to three weeks worth of data, it is time to really look at trends around the NFL. A week here and a game there can provide anomalies. But three weeks is enough to really see what teams can (or can’t do).

One thing is now for certain: the NFC is terrible. Headed into last week I saw only three possible NFC contenders: the Cowboys, the Seahawks and the Eagles. I said this when the Eagles were 0-2. The Eagles proved me right with their drubbing of the Lions (my favorites to win the NFC North), the Cowboys made my 5-star pick a breeze and the Seahawks scraped out another win (something they are very good at) last week. The Bears and Saints are still MIA and are expected to remain that way. The Pack are making noise, and Favre could script a storybook run in the weak NFC, but I don’t buy it yet. Even if they will be 4-0 after this week.

Before you throw out all of my non-5-star picks and just throw the farm on my proposed lock, keep in mind I am feeling it this week. I like the match-ups, the trends and the numbers. It has been relatively easy to choose my 5-star game the first three weeks. This week it was different. I like too many games. But do keep in mind I am a stout 7-1 (.875) on 5-star picks. So if you are following trends, my 5-star pick is the way to go. I should be charging for this info. Other “Pros” charge for theirs with much lower numbers. Come on, enter the party.

Week 4 picks…

Ravens @ Browns (+4.5)
I am not crazy with this pick. I love the Browns at home against a very overrated team that almost blew a large lead to Kurt Warner last week. The trends are with me, too. Cleveland is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this year and Baltimore is 0-3. I’ll take the points.

Chicago @ Detroit (+3)
Another home dog makes the list. Can Chicago still be considered for road favorite status? Really? They were on the losing end of last week’s 5-star pick for good reason. They ain’t good. And I am certain Brian Griese is not the answer to their troubles. The Lions will throw early and often. Kitna can easily have Romo success against the Bears D. Did I mention the Bears are 0-3 ATS this year? And 1-8 in their last 9? I like points against a trend like that.

Packers (-1) @ Vikings
From two home dogs to three road favorites… Leading off are the very surprising 3-0 Pack Attack. Pure numbers: Green Bay is 3-0 ATS this year and 6-1 in their last 7. Minnesota is 1-0-2 this year and 3-8-2 in their last 13. I love when trends work together to make a clear decision. Yes, the Pack will be 4-0. Who’d have thunk?

Patriots (-7) @ Bengals
Road Fav #2… the Pats. If you need convincing (you shouldn’t), here it goes: Brandy and Co. are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. The Bungals are 2-3-1 ATS in their last six. Is it possible that Vegas sees the Pats as underrated and the Bengals as overrated? That’s what the trends say. I’ll take the “underrated” (cough) Pats and give the Bengals their seven points, even if they are at home. The Pats cover, it’s what they do.

*****Five-star pick of the Week***** Steelers (-6) @ Cardinals
The Steelers are sleeping Giants. They have won their first three games by a combined score of 97- 26. Sure they played some lackluster teams, but it’s not like the Cardinals are striking fear into anyone’s heart these days. Another mediocre opponent for Pittsburgh means another lopsided victory. Oh, I almost forgot… the Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight (3-0 this year). The Cards are 1-0-2 to begin 2007. I love it!

Ace Cummins is 16-14-4 overall and 7-1 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.

Week 3 - Redemption

By Ace Cummins

I have to admit, it took the entire week to get over the horror show that was Week 2. I went from dejected and jaded to a surprisingly defiant and enthusiastic. Sure it took five days, but you can’t keep a good man down. However, I was no where near close to “good” in Week 2. It happens. Ace will move on. But I will learn as I move on, turning lemons into lemonade, and losses into future wins.

The story of Week 2 can be told with one defining stat: Underdogs were 12-3-1. Really. No lie. And the only dog I picked was the hapless Chargers that were routed by the Pats on Sunday night. So much for karma. I forgot to factor in that karma doesn’t account for terrible coaching. And Norv Turner definitely qualifies. He will single handedly destroy the Chargers. Numbers don’t lie. In his ten years as a head coach in the NFL, Turner now has an overall record of 59-83-1. He has only three winning seasons under his belt and only one 10-win season. He’s not the guy I would have hired. By Week 6 Chargers fans will be reminiscing about Marty Ball.

Week 3 picks…

Colts (-6) @ Texans
I have been waiting for this game. I really wanted to take the surging Texans at home against the big bad champs, and would have gladly until Texans’ superstar wide receiver Andre Johnson was hurt last week and now out for this week. Without Andre the upstart Texans won’t be able to hold off the Manning Bunch. It’s all good though, Johnson will be back in the future and we can take them against a lesser team at home. Manning to Wayne twice = Colts by 14.

Jaguars @ Broncos (-3)
The Jags rush defense has been atrocious this year and the main positive for Denver has been the rushing attack led by Travis Henry who has rushed for over 100 yards in his first two games as a Bronco.

Which reminds me… Back in August Henry was ordered to pay child support for the nine kids he has fathered by nine different women over four different states. What can I really say about that? Words cannot do that justice. Henry is really raising the bar for the future Shawn Kemps of the sports world. Luckily he has a $25 million contract.

Henry’s nine kids will be able to watch Daddy lead the Broncos to a win against the lackluster Jags who have shown nothing to me this season. Broncos at home win by 10.

Bengals @ Seahawks (-3)
Last week the ‘hawks were the first five-star loser in OSB history. But I still think they are a good team. They are a botched hand-off away from being 2-0. Not to mention they are a very tough home team and the Bengals gave up 51 to the Browns in Cleveland last week. Seattle by a touchdown.

Browns @ Raiders (-3)
This is a huge game for the Raiders. Gigantic. If they lose, they won’t reach two wins. If they win I think they could have a shot at as many as six wins. Coach Kiffin knows this. After the made field goal - timeout - missed field goal fiasco in Denver last week that begs for a rule change the Raiders smell blood. A poor Browns team that are steel reeling off their 51 point outburst against the Bungals is a great formula to get Kiffin his first career win as a head coach.

*****Five-star pick of the Week***** Cowboys (+3) @ Bears
The ‘boys are 2-0 against the spread this year. The Bears are anemic offensively negating Dallas’ mediocre to poor defense and questionable secondary. With a win the Cowboys are in the driver’s seat of the NFC bus. Albeit a very poor bus. The NFC is just plain horrid. Cowboys and points makes me happy.

Ace Cummins is 15-12-2 overall and 6-1 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.

Week 2 - The Week That Could

By Ace Cummins

If week 1 was the week that “could have been” then week 2 is definitely the “week that could.” AT least that’s what I tell myself. After watching the Eagles special teams mock me with two blunders that cost Philly the game (not to mention the cover) and the Rams being, well… the Rams I thought that starting the year off at 0-2 was a bad sign. But I fought off those demons and tripled up on my five-star pick of the week (Seahawks) and coasted to two Sunday afternoon victories (Chargers). I left Vegas with over a grand of cash in my pocket.  It felt good.  On Monday the 49ers and Cards were a push, so after the 0-2 start I was very happy to end the week 2-2-1 and nailing my five-star pick (again!). People, are you paying attention? 6-0 on five-star picks. Free money.

Now to my Week 2 picks…

I was only going to pick five games a week, but I like six this week. So screw it. I am going with six this week.

Bengals (-6.5) @ Browns
This is one of those games where I fell the road/home advantage doesn’t come into play. Bengals are good. Brown are bad. Under a touchdown means bet the favorite every time. Bengals will win by two TDs.

Saints (-3.5) @ Bucs
I can’t believe people are jumping off the Saints wagon already. It was one game. It was against the defending champs. The Bucs will have trouble scoring all year. The Saints are still a high powered offense, despite week 1. Note: I will continue to bet against the Bucs until they prove they can cover a spread.

Cowboys (-3.5) @ Dolphins
Sure the Cowboys gave up a lot of points against a poor team last week. And yes, the Dolphins aren’t as bad as everyone thinks. But these teams are on opposite sides of the NFL Mendoza line right now. The Cowboys have their eyes on the postseason and the Dolphins are searching for an identity. The Dolphins were my sleeper pick this year too. Oh well. I like money.

Chargers (+3.5) @ Patriots
If you only watch one football game this week, chances are it will be this one. There are two ways to look at this game. I for one believe in karma. And Karma is a bitch. The Changers money line is a great bet if you like karma. But getting 3.5 points is even more solid. Prior to “CameraGate,” or whatever you want to call it, I liked the Chargers. In the aftermath I think it is highly possible that the Pats will be pressing. If they lose, everyone will think that they benefited from the cheating ways. Also, I liken this situation to stealing signs in baseball. Stealing signs is a huge advantage. Take it away and batters start to feel at a disadvantage. Couple these two things and the fact the the Chargers have THE best player in football and a solid defense; I give the 4^th quarter edge to the boys from San Diego. Chargers win on their last possession and the “CameraGate” story lives on. Karma.

Redskins @ Eagles (-6.5)
Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, but I still believe the Eagles will make a SuperBowl run. Serious. It’s their year. Despite last week’s debacle, I feel that if it wasn’t for a few Special Teams miscues, they would have squeaked out the win, and would be a 9 point favorite this week. That is an easy correction and hopefully the real DNabb shows up for a few series. If he does, this one could be a breeze.

*****Five-star pick of the Week***** Seahawks (-3) @ Cardinals
As I said last week, the Cards are still the Cards until they prove otherwise. Seahawks were solid on both sides of the ball and the Cards were bad on both sides of the ball last week. Do the Cards have a home field advantage? Do I need to answer that?

Ace Cummins is 14-7-2 overall and 6-0 on 5-star picks. Please send all hate mail, questions, fantasy football lineup dilemmas and 10% of your profits to ace.osb@gmail.com.

It’s Football Season. You Can Smell the Goodness in the Air.

By Ace Cummins

Ace is back. Just in time for the NFL, College Football and Fantasy Football Seasons. Maybe that is what I enjoy so much about football. It isn’t that it is just ONE season, but in reality THREE distinctly different seasons.

College football season began last week and I had the extreme pleasure of going to what many experts predicted would be the game of the week. And they were right. The game featured two top-25 teams from different powerhouse conferences. It was a rematch of the season opener a year earlier. Both teams scored two touchdowns in the opening quarter. The over hit 1:26 into the 3^rd quarter. A Heisman candidate notched the 6^th punt return TD of his career (2 shy of the NCAA record) on a 77-yard scamper off a punt that was intended to go out of bounds. Hysteria ensued.

The California Golden Bears enacted revenge on the Volunteers of Tennessee last Saturday at Memorial Stadium on the Berkeley campus, and if you missed it, you missed a great one. DeSean Jackson is the truth. He is worth the price of admission alone. When the Bears are on national TV, watch them, just so you can watch #1 play. He belongs in another category. DJ is a football freak that defies all logic. And this isn’t just my opinion, I have numbers to back this up.

Here is a comparison of the players that some people consider the three greatest punt returners in NCAA history. Wes Welker (Texas Tech) and Antonio Perkins (Oklahoma) both share the NCAA career record of punt return touchdowns with eight. Ted Ginn, Jr. (Ohio State) finished his short college career with six career punt return TDs.

Check out the raw data:

Wes Welker, Texas Tech (2000-2003) - 8 TDs in 152 career returns (5.2%)
Antonio Perkins, Oklahoma (2001-2004) - 8 TDs in 113 career returns (7.0%)
Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State (2004-2006) - 6 TDs in 64 career returns (9.3%)

Where does DeSean Jackson fit in this mix? The numbers speak volumes.

DeSean Jackson, Cal (2005-present) - 6 TDs in 27 career returns (25.9%)

Over 25%? Are you joking? Unbelievable. He might never be kicked to again, but if he does, with a 25% chance of taking it to the house, you know I’ll be watching.

Now to my Week 1 picks…

Ace is feeling good after the Super Bowl Champs opened the NFL season by obliterating the spread against a very anemic Saints offense last night.

Panthers @ Rams (-1)
Take the Rams at home against a vastly over-rated Panthers team that has struggled to find it’s identity since the miracle SuperBowl run a few years ago. Jake Delhomme has not been the guy we all thought he would be, and the Rams offense can score against anyone. This line should be about 4.5. Can’t figure it out.

Eagles (-3) at Packers
What I love about week 1 is all of the speculation and unknown. I think the Packers are at best an 8-8 team while the Eagles are ready to reclaim their dominance of the NFC East. McNabb is back and is looking sharp and healthy, they have a solid defense, a great versatile back and an under-rated receiving corp. The Eagles could blow up this year and it might start week one at Lambeau field. This one could be over after the first quarter. Three points is not enough to stop be from betting on Philly. Not even close.

Bears @ Chargers (-6)
The Bears might be coming off a SuperBowl appearance, but you can’t argue that they still have a lot of unanswered questions. The Chargers are coming off a bitter end to last season where they were the clear SuperBowl favorites headed into the playoffs but lost a heartbreaker at home to the Pats. The Colts and Pats are all the rage when it comes to AFC water cooler talk, but don’t forget the Chargers were by far the best team in the nFL during the regular season last year. I mean, it wasn’t even close. And who better to take their frustration of a year ago out on than the Bears? The team they would have played in the SuperBowl last season if not for Marty. Chargers should win by at least 10.

Cardinals @ 49ers (-3)
My Week 1 picks contain every NFC West team. In what should be the most competitive division in the NFL this year, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see a four-way tie with every team going 8-8. But it is the NFL, and one of the four teams will have to be the doormat of the division. My early favorite for that role is the Cardinals. Again the Cards come into the season with a ton of hype, some bold expert predictions and a solid cast. But I played the fiddle one too many times in the past (see last year’s Cards), and I am not taking the bait again this year. The Cards are still the… well… Cards. At least until they prove something else on the field. That coupled with the fact that the 49ers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and a franchise running back makes this pick easy for me. 49ers at home on Monday night. Nuff said.

Bucs @ Seahawks (-6) *****Five-star pick of the Week*****
Two factors led me to this decision. Number one, the Bucs are terrible. Terrible. They are my front runner to be the #1 pick in the draft next season. I just don’t see them winning more than three games. The Seahawks have their franchise running back suiting up and are way more healthy then they were at the end of last year’s improbable playoff run (thanks to a botched Tony Romo hold). For whatever reason you choose to site (coaching, players, divine intervention), you cannot deny the Seahawks find a way to win, especially at home. Seattle is a tough place to play and is worth a few points to Vegas. I am shocked this game isn’t the biggest line of the week. Seahawks in a rout.

Ace Cummins is 12-5-1 overall and 5-0 on 5-star picks headed into his first NFL season as the gambling columnist for OSB.